The Electoral College
| State/District (Electoral Votes) | Old Rating | New Rating |
| Colorado (9) | Likely Biden | Safe Biden |
| ME-2 (1) | Toss-Up | Lean Trump |
| Missouri (10) | Safe Trump | Likely Trump |
| NE-2 (1) | Toss-Up | Lean Biden |
| North Carolina (15) | Toss-Up | Lean Biden |
I predict a Joe Biden victory. Biden will win 334 Electoral Votes, and Trump will win 204 Electoral Votes.
The good news for Trump is that, after hitting the campaign trail in full force after his COVID diagnosis, the revelations about Joe benefiting from Hunter Biden’s shady Ukrainian business dealings, and the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett, all events that have emboldened conservatives, polls have tightened slightly since Joe Biden’s high-water-mark early in October. This leads me to favor Trump in states that largely voted red in the 2018 midterms, namely Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and Texas. The bad news for Trump is that this tightening was from a 10-point Biden lead to an 8-point Biden lead. I’d expect the final national popular vote margin to be 6-7 points in favor of Biden, which is over 4 points better than Hillary Clinton. Even this is a relatively conservative estimate for Biden. This will be good to flip 6 traditional swing states all over the map that Trump won, namely Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. I don’t think it will be enough to flip Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which is much redder. Remember, Maine and Nebraska are the two states that award Electoral Votes by congressional district.
As for Colorado, I just don’t think Trump is in a position where he can hope to improve enough from his 2016 performance enough to flip it. The state voted for Hillary Clinton by nearly 5 points. Local Republican officials have raised concerns over polls showing Trump’s lead fading in Missouri. Keep in mind this state voted for Trump by 19 points last time. A Biden victory here would be an absolute shocker, but not an event I can rule out.
The Senate
| State | Old Rating | New Rating |
| Georgia (Special) | Lean Republican | Toss-Up |
| New Mexico | Safe Democrat | Likely Democrat |
| North Carolina | Toss-Up | Lean Democrat |
The Senate is where things get complicated. I predict Democrats will win 50 Senate seats, and Republicans will win 49 Senate seats. Now if you know basic math, you know that those two numbers don’t equal 100, the number of Senators. So what happened to that other seat?
Georgia, thanks to the resignation of Republican Senator Johnny Isakson, is holding elections for both of its Senate seats. In Georgia, if one Senate candidate doesn’t get 50% of the vote, then the top two vote getters will compete head-to-head in another election on January 5. This could potentially happen in Georgia’s regular Senate election between Republican David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff, but I’d give Perdue the advantage, runoff or not. The election I’m more concerned about is the special election, where four major candidates are competing for a spot in the runoff. Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler and challenger Doug Collins face Democratic challengers Raphael Warnock and Matt Lieberman. It’s extremely unlikely one of these individual candidates gets 50% of the vote. Recent polling data suggests Raphael Warnock, a pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, one of the state’s largest and most influential churches, is surging ahead, and is likely to secure a spot in the runoff. The two Republicans are competing for enough GOP votes to secure the second spot in the runoff. This has moved both candidates far to the right, lessening their appeal in the Atlanta metro area, and has put Republicans in a situation where they’re attacking each other instead of Democrats. Who knows what the political environment will be like on January 5, a date far after we know who will be inaugurated and far after a lot of Americans will stop caring about politics? I decided to strip Republicans of their advantage in the Georgia special election.
Thankfully for Democrats, if my predictions pan out, they will have control of the Senate even if they lose both Georgia seats. After the reveal of an extramarital sexting scandal, Democrat Cal Cunningham in North Carolina has been able to maintain his polling lead by sticking to the shadows, avoiding public events, and essentially running out the clock until Election Day. This strategy seems to be working, as there is scant evidence of a comeback by incumbent Republican Thom Tillis. It is expected that Republicans will flip Alabama, and that Democrats will flip Arizona, Colorado, and Maine. If Democrat flip North Carolina, that brings them to 50 seats, enough to take control if Kamala Harris casts the tie-breaking vote.
Of course, Democrats would prefer an outright majority of 51 seats or more, which would be what they get if they win the Georgia special election. Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat from West Virginia, becomes the Senate’s ultimate swing vote if the Senate is 50-50. If Democrats get 51, Chuck Schumer’s powers as majority leader are more complete.
New Mexico, previously a Safe Democrat state, has gotten a little bit of attention. Republican meteorologist Mark Ronchetti has received the endorsement of the Albuquerque Journal. National Democratic groups have purchased ad buys in the state, suggesting they believe Democratic House representative Ben Ray Lujan isn’t a lock to win the seat. Given a likely pro-Republican swing among Latinos, one of the state’s largest demographics, I’m leaving the door open for a Republican upset. Lujan should still win, he’s a good candidate in a blue state.
Notable is that if I’m correct in every state, it will be the second Presidential Election in a row in which no state votes for different parties for Senate and President.
The House
| District | Old Rating | New Rating |
| AR-2 | Likely R | Lean R |
| AZ-6 | Toss-Up | Lean D |
| CA-21 | Toss-Up | Lean R |
| CA-25 | Toss-Up | Lean R |
| CA-39 | Lean D | Lean R |
| CA-48 | Toss-Up | Lean D |
| FL-27 | Likely D | Lean D |
| GA-7 | Toss-Up | Lean D |
| IA-1 | Toss-Up | Lean D |
| IA-3 | Toss-Up | Lean D |
| IN-5 | Lean R | Lean D |
| IL-13 | Toss-Up | Lean R |
| IL-17 | Likely D | Lean D |
| MN-2 | Safe D | Likely D |
| MN-7 | Toss-Up | Lean R |
| NC-11 | Safe R | Likely R |
| NM-2 | Toss-Up | Lean R |
| NJ-2 | Toss-Up | Lean D |
| NY-11 | Lean D | Lean R |
| NY-22 | Toss-Up | Lean D |
| OH-1 | Toss-Up | Lean R |
| OK-5 | Toss-Up | Lean R |
| OR-4 | Likely D | Lean D |
| PA-10 | Toss-Up | Lean D |
| SC-1 | Toss-Up | Lean R |
| TX-24 | Toss-Up | Lean D |
| VA-7 | Toss-Up | Lean D |
I predict Democrats will win 235 House seats, and Republicans will win 200 even. Readers with a vivid memory will remember that Democrats also won 235 House seats in 2018. I’m predicting the 2020 election cycle will be a massive wash for both parties in the House. I think this is reasonable, as the political environment this year won’t be that much different from 2018. Technically, this would be a Democratic net gain of two seats, as Democrats lost one seat to party-switching and another to a special election between 2018 and now. This prediction would be a net loss of just one for Republicans, as they’d pick up MI-3, which is currently held by Libertarian Justin Amash. Under this prediction, at most 17 Democrats could team up with every Republican to stop a bill from being passed.
I’m not going to write 27 different paragraphs for each rating change I made in the House today, because similar themes factored into each decision.
I’m following the money. After the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, people donated to Democrats at record levels, giving many incumbents or candidates a newfound advantage, such as in CA-49, NJ-2, NY-22, PA-10, and VA-7. However, this works both ways. If a Republican retains a cash advantage going into Election Day because the Democrat failed to capitalize on the surge in enthusiasm, this puts that Republican in good position. Such is the reason for my Lean R ratings in CA-39 and SC-1, perhaps my two most head-turning ratings changes.
Polls, for all of their limitations, can provide a good picture of where a House race stands if they’re released soon before the election. They’ve caused me to move AZ-6, IA-1, IA-3, and IN-5 to Lean D. They’ve also caused me to move OK-5, MN-2, and NY-11 to Lean R.
The final days of a campaign are the most important. More people are paying attention, and undecided voters need to make up their mind. I’m moving the the left-trending GA-7 and TX-24 to Lean D, because Republicans have failed to establish robust appeal to swing voters. I’m moving MN-7, which Trump won by about 30 points, to Lean R. Republican Michelle Fishbach is campaigning harder than incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson. National groups are preparing for a Peterson loss. In the Cincinnati-area OH-1, Democratic nominee Kate Schroeder is by no means a bad candidate, but it would take an exceptionally good campaign to take down incumbent Republican Steve Chabot, a local institution, in this Trump+6 district. OH-1 moves to Lean R.
One place I expect Democrats to underperform is in rural/exurban areas in solid blue states. In places like New York, Illinois, and California, we are seeing a bit of a Republican tide due to unpopular Democratic governors who have implemented lengthy lockdowns and fiscally left-wing policies. Lowering bail for people charged with violent crimes in New York, high taxes in Illinois, or frequent power shortages in California have become wedge issues. This has led me to pick Republicans in the hotly contested races of IL-13, CA-21, and CA-25.
Of the former Toss-Up races, I’ve picked Democrats in 10, and Republicans in 8. I’ve picked 2 Republicans in races that previously leaned Democrat, and 1 Democrat in a race that previously leaned Republican. That’s about as even of a split as you’re going to get.
The Governors
The only Toss-Up Governor Race is in Montana. Polls have been favorable to Republicans in Montana. People in Montana seem to have forgotten about the incident in 2017 when Gianforte body slammed a reporter. The biggest news story to come out of the race is Democratic candidate Mike Cooney tricking former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie into attacking Gianforte through a charity event. It seems Gianforte has ended up with the advantage.
Note that New Jersey and Virginia aren’t holding Governor elections this year. Their elections are in 2021.
What Does a Good Result For Your Party Look Like?
For Democrats, a good result would be an overperformance compared to 2018, a blue tsunami. This allows Biden to flip the Lean Trump states, putting him above 400 Electoral Votes, a landslide victory. In this timeline, Democrats probably gain a dozen or more House seats. In the Senate, they’d probably flip Iowa, at least 1 Georgia race, and probably one of the Likely Republican races, giving Democrats a 53-47 majority, a total reversal of the current arrangement. Expect a lot of liberal policies if this result happens.
For Republicans, a good result may not necessarily mean a Trump victory. Trump is behind by 8 points, a much larger deficit than in 2016, has consistently low approval ratings among independents, and is behind in many swing states. While Republicans would be overjoyed at 4 more years of Trump, probably a victory in which he either wins all of the Lean Biden states or upsets in a Likely Biden state, I’d advise Republicans to set their expectations low. If Republicans manage to hold on to one or two of North Carolina, Maine, Arizona, or Colorado, and Democrats don’t upset anywhere else, they can escape with a 51-49 or 52-48 Senate majority. While Republican options in the House are limited, if the generic ballot meaningfully improves from 2018 in some places, they can minimize losses of their own, and come out with a net gain in the mid-single digits. This result would severely limit Biden’s ability to get legislative victories.
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