There have been some major developments in the last week or so that have changed the face of the battle for the Senate. At the beginning of the month, taking the Senate was an uphill endeavor for the Democratic party. Now, Democrats have a clear-cut way to get a 50-seat majority, with several backup options. What changed? Several Republican Senators (and one Democratic Senator) found themselves under the cloud of scandal when it was discovered they sold off millions of dollars in stocks after attending non-public briefings about coronavirus. It is assumed classified information about the virus’ potential severity was shared in these briefings, and the Senators used this “private information” to advantage themselves financially by selling stocks, while the public was left in the dark. This behavior is made illegal by the STOCK Act, and is considered an abuse of power. One of these Senators, Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), is up for election this year. The Georgia Senate Special Election moves to Toss-Up. This news re-invigorates Georgia Democrats. It also opens up an opportunity for Republican Congressman Doug Collins, who’s challenging Loeffler in the primary. While Loeffler and Collins are virtually indistinguishable policy-wise, their backgrounds are different. Collins is a loud and proud conservative from northern Georgia, while Loeffler is a lesser-known Atlanta-area large businesswoman who was appointed to the Senate after the resignation of former Senator Johnny Isakson, instead of being elected. With this scandal, I’d expect Collins to beat Loeffler in a primary, but Collins has very limited appeal to the state’s swing demographic: moderate suburbanites. I’d expect national Democrats to throw more of their money and time to their preferred candidate in this race, Raphael Warnock. Raphael is the lead pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, one of the nation’s largest black churches, giving him appeal to two of the state’s largest groups of people. He certainly has the kind of charisma that can get African-Americans to turn out and vote. He emphasizes his inspiring story of going from growing up in project housing to being ordained lead pastor at Ebenezer. His message is largely about trying to improve the economic situation of low-income families like he was as a kid. He may also appeal to the Christian vote, another large voting bloc in Georgia.
Another thing to consider about this Georgia election is that instead of primary elections, a “jungle primary” with all candidates from all parties will take place on November 3rd. In the unlikely event one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, he/she will win right then and there. Otherwise, the two candidates that get the most votes will face off head-to-head in a January 2021 runoff election. There is a scenario where the Republican vote is split so closely between Loeffler and Collins, and enough of the Democratic vote goes to other candidates, like Matt Lieberman, the son of the former Senator Joe (I-CT) that Warnock comes in 3rd place, locking Democrats out of the race. Usually primaries aren’t that close, but it’s something Democrats need to watch out for, and another reason they should invest heavily in one candidate, probably Warnock, the candidate they’ve indicated they prefer. They don’t want another CA-HD-38 situation. A January runoff would probably be a low-turnout affair, and when turnout is low in a marginal state like Georgia, the side that has the most energy behind it usually wins, which is likely to be be the party that loses the presidential race. Special elections in general are harder to predict than regular elections.
Another development that has improved team blue’s chances is Joe Biden all but locking up the nomination. While I don’t believe Joe Biden is a big favorite over Donald Trump in November, he’ll do a lot better than Sanders would’ve done in the states Democrats need to flip to win the Senate. Who can energize African-American voters in North Carolina? Joe Biden. Who can make Trump-skeptic moderate ex-Republicans in the Atlanta and Phoenix suburbs feel welcome in the Democratic party? Joe Biden. Who can get a good share of the retired vote in Arizona? Joe Biden. These statements have been backed up by his outsize performance among these three groups in the primaries. In fact, Arizona is the site of another ratings change. Arizona’s Senate race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat. This change is partly due to Joe Biden, and partly due to the Democratic candidate here, Mark Kelly. Mark Kelly is a former astronaut and veteran and is married to former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, whos been one of the leaders in the effort for gun control after surviving being shot in the face in 2011. He is one of the election cycle’s breakout stars, it’s hard to find something he’s not doing right. He’s raised over 20 million dollars, a mind-blowing number that suggests his charisma, and has consistently led in polls, even when those same polls have shown the presidential race nearly tied. His opponent, incumbent Senator Martha McSally, was appointed after the resignation of former Senator John Kyl, and is pretty much a “generic Republican”. These factors have created a compounding effect for Democrats in the state which puts them in a favorable spot to flip this seat in November.
The last ratings change is in Montana. Montana’s Senate race moves from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Former presidential candidate and current governor of Montana Steve Bullock will challenge incumbent Republican Steve Daines. Bullock has narrowly won statewide elections in Montana three times, 2 of them for Governor. If he’s won in Montana before, then why do I say the Republican is likely to still win this state? First, this state voted for Trump by over 20 points. Secondly, people are much more likely to split tickets in statewide elections than national elections. Statewide elections are about state and local issues, which are less politically polarizing than national issues, which is what a Senate race will be about. Many governors have tried and failed to get elected to the Senate. Bullock’s unique brand of populism works in governor elections in the sparse state, but he’d be considered too liberal for the Senate, where people fear he would obstruct Trump and vote the same way as progressives. Third, his short-lived presidential bid hurt him. He had to move left on national issues like gun control to make him a better fit for national Democratic primary voters, which libertarian-leaning Montanans won’t take kindly too. Despite this, he couldn’t even make it to the Iowa caucuses, which isn’t a good look. Finally, the man he’s running against, Steve Daines, is pretty well-liked in Montana. Daines, a small-government conservative, fits the state pretty well.
So looking at the bigger picture, I’d say the Senate is a Toss-Up. My ratings cuurently show 3 incumbent Senators underdogs for re-election. Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama is a big underdog, while Republicans Cory Gardner of Colorado and Martha McSally of Arizona are both at a disadvantage currently, although not to the level of Doug Jones. If these predictions pan out, Democrats need 2 more seats (and the Presidency) to flip the Senate. And look at that, 2 Republican Senators are in Toss-Up, Tom Tillis of North Carolina and Kelly Loeffler of Georgia, ripe for picking. Even if they falter in one of these races, Democrats have backup options. Maine, a Clinton state where incumbent Republican Susan Collins is becoming increasingly unpopular and Democrats fundraising has been off the charts is probably their best bet. But don’t forget about Iowa, where a similar situation is playing out, just in a Trump state. Or Kansas, where Republicans could be in big danger if they nominate Kris Kobach. Or Montana, where Bullock could eek out a win if he plays his cards just right. Or Alaska, where nominally independent candidate Dr. Al Gross is making a splash and outraising incumbent Dan Sullivan. There are many ways Democrats could get to 50 seats or maybe even to the 51 seats they need if Trump wins re-election. For Republicans, besides maybe Michigan, their chances of flipping a Senate seat outside of Alabama look bleak.
Despite all of this, if one put a gun to my head and asked “Which party will control the Senate in 2021?”, I’d say Republicans are slight favorites. Donald Trump’s approval ratings have been rising a bit recently as a majority of Americans approve of his handling of coronavirus. If his poll numbers keep rising, then all of a sudden Cory Gardner and Martha McSally aren’t underdogs anymore, as Trump polls better in their states. Having to deal with Toss-Up races in Colorado and Arizona would be disastrous for Democrats, as they would then need to sweep 4 Toss-Up states and win the presidency. There is still a scenario where Republicans experience minimal losses in the Senate. However, it could also work the other way for Trump. If the coronavirus pandemic really gets out of control and the death toll snowballs like it did in Italy, swing voters will turn on Trump in a hurry, and elect Democrats. It’ll important to watch what’s happening in the presidential race, as it will affect greatly what happens in the Senate.
I suppose that at this uncertain chapter in American history, there are countless potential outcomes for what happens going forward with the virus, making this election nearly impossible to prognosticate well. People like me will just have to take one step at a time, instead of trying to imagine the whole staircase.
Thank you for reading my article. If you want more Toss-Up Central, visit my home page: https://tossupcentral.com/. New articles will be posted at least every other Sunday at 6PM.