Special Elections in Wisconsin, Georgia
Republican Congressman Sean Duffy will resign in September. His wife is expecting their 9th child, but a complication related to the baby’s heart has been detected. He’s resigning to take care of his baby. It wouldn’t surprise me if he returned to politics sometime in the next decade, if all his children are healthy and well.
His district, WI-7, is a mainly rural, forest-heavy district in the state’s northwest, and is rapidly trending right. In 2008, Obama won it by 8%, but it went for Romney by 3%, and for Trump by a whopping 20%. It’s house representative flipped from Democrat to Republican in 2010. Leah Vukmir, the 2018 Senate nominee, carried the district by low-single digits, even as she was losing statewide by 11%. Unlike last year, Democrats performance in special elections so far this year has been generally mediocre, especially when the Democrat didnhave money or high profile endorsements.
There’s one scenario where Democrats might have a chance: If Democrat governor Tony Evers schedules the special election the same day as Wisconsin’s Democrat presidential primary on April 7th, 2020. Democrat turnout will already be enhanced, the degree to which depending on how contested the nomination is at that point.
The Democrats best candidates are probably a duo of state legislators, Assemblyman Nick Milroy, and State Senator Janet Bewley. They both hail from the Iron Range, a Democrat leaning, yet heavily white working class part of the state. Given their constituencies, they may have the most appeal in this district.
For now, I rate the special election as Safe Republican. If one of the above candidates is the nominee, and the election is scheduled for April 7th, it may become Likely Republican, especially if Democrats start giving it more attention. If Democrats somehow win, it would be huge for their hopes of winning the presidency in 2020, as Wisconsin is most likely to be the bellwether state of 2020.
A U.S. Senator, Johnny Isakson (R-Georgia), will also resign at the end of the year, due to health issues. He’s 74. Unlike vacancies in the House, the governor must appoint someone to fill the Senate seat until a special election can be held. Georgia’s governor, Brian Kemp, is one of the most conservative governors in the nation, and he’ll want to appoint someone who’s similar to him ideologically. I think one of these three people will be appointed. All 3 are Republicans.
-Jody Hice, a Congressman from GA-10, and a member of the very conservative House Freedom Caucus
-Christopher Carr, the state’s Attorney General who was also Chief of Staff to Senator Isakson
-Mike Dugan, the State Senate Majority Leader who played a big role in passing the state’s famous heartbeat abortion bill
Carr would probably be the establishment choice, but if Kemp wanted more conservative blood in the Senate, he could go with Dugan or Hice.
What are the Democrat’s options? There are a bunch of low-level candidates who could run, but everyone’s focused on one name: Stacey Abrams. A rising star in the party, she became famous in her 2018 effort to become the nation’s first black female governor, and for opposing Kemp. She already has given a solid no to this race, but it’s possible she could have a change of heart, and realize a potential Democrat president couldn’t make any of the progress or change she’s calling for, much like John Hickenlooper in Colorado (more on him in a bit.) Conventional wisdom suggests she’d have the best chance at snatching this Senate seat for the party, but I believe there are grounds to doubt that. While she would have money and high-profile endorsements, she would be seen by a majority of the state’s voters as too progressive. People mention her ability to appeal to black voters, the reality is black voters aren’t all that progressive, especially rural blacks. She still contends she didn’t lose the 2018 governor’s race, and that Brian Kemp, who was Secretary of State at the time, caused her to loose through voter suppression tactics. People would think her a sore loser with little faith in democracy, and quite frankly, a bit hypocritical, because Democrats condemned Trump when he threatened to deny the results of the election if he lost in 2016. If you ask me, at this point, she would have as good of a chance as anyone else running.
Since we don’t know too much about this race yet, like what the candidates will be, I’ll go with the presidential rating in Georgia, and rate this race Lean Republican. Something else to consider is that this race will take place the same day as Georgia’s other Senate race, and the presidential race. The last time a state has 2 Senate elections on the same day, and both didn’t go to the same party, was in 1966 in South Carolina.
Colorado Senate Race Moves to Lean Democrat
Former Governor John Hickenlooper, a former presidential candidate, is running for Senate in Colorado. He was the best candidate Democrats could’ve hoped for. He’s a reasonably popular moderate who won governor elections in the red wave years of 2010 and 2014, and has appeal across the state. Two polls showed him leading incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner by double digits. His main weakness comes from him saying he initially didn’t want the seat because he likes to lead from the front in executive positions, like the presidency. That’s him basically saying he’s not good for the job. Nevertheless, I think he’s solid enough to move the race to Lean Democrat, solidifying Colorado’s status as the best pickup opportunity for Senate Democrats.
Democrats now have Tier I recruits in Colorado and Arizona, the races they’re most likely to flip. Their struggles are in other states that are more red and/or have popular incumbents, where they’re stuck with C-list recruits at best. They would need to flip 2 more Senate seats, provided they lose Alabama. I wouldn’t crap on these low-tier candidates just yet. Just last year, Republicans were anxious their Senate candidates in Indiana and Missouri, Mike Braun and Josh Hawley, didn’t have enough experience or firepower to win. They both did by 6 points. Just because you’ve never heard of someone before doesn’t mean they’re a bad candidate. Many Democrats believe if they don’t capture both the Presidency and the Senate this year, they won’t be able to get any of their agenda done. Perhaps with enough money and attention, some of these smaller candidates will rise up to the challenge.
The Next Generation of Kennedys
Congressman Joe Kennedy III, who’s related to the former president, will run for Senate in Massachusetts. He’s challenging incumbent Ed Markey in the Democrat primary. Some expected Markey to face a primary challenge, as he is the very definition of old-guard, at 73. Kennedy, 38, can make the case it’s time for a new generation of leadership. Markey may also just not seek re-election if he doesn’t want to have a fight on his hands. Besides age, the two have a lot in common, so Markey could attack Kennedy for, well, running just because of his surname. This will be The Bay State’s first interesting Senate race since 2012. Kennedy’s House seat will also be left without an incumbent, and it’s likely the establishment and progressives will duel over it. In the long term, it wouldn’t surprise me that Joe Kennedy III could try to bring his family name back to the Oval Office, if he’s elected to the Senate.
Thank you for reading. Feel free to explore this website, and I’ll be back with another article in 2 weeks or less.