Let’s start off with the big news. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is coming back for more. He declared a 2nd presidential bid this morning. This announcement came as a surprise to me, mainly due to age. He would be 79 during his first inauguration, smashing the old record of 73, set by Ronald Reagan. By the end of his hypothetical two-term presidency, he’d be 87. To compare, the life expectancy of the average American male is 76. He’d be 11 years older than that, as president. It would be miraculous if he actually pulled two terms off.
One advantage he possesses is that he ran for the nomination 4 years ago, and was able to get a very impressive 43% of the primary vote, given many thought it would be a landslide for Hillary Clinton. He certainly has the experience edge over many of his rivals, who are running for the first time. He represents the “bold progressive” wing of the party, calling for a $15 minimum wage, free public college, and breaking up the big banks. Overall, I consider him to be among the frontrunners. In the RCP polling average, he has 17%. Compare that to Joe Biden’s 28% and Harris’ 10%. However, for reasons I specify in my post about Kamala(1) and this post, I’ll put Sanders in 2nd place for the nomination, below her, in the “Best Shot Tracker”(2)
Bradley Byrne Runs For Senate
Rep. Bradley Byrne (R, AL-1) is running for Senate against incumbent Alabama Sen. Doug Jones (D). I’ll elaborate more on this in my next Senate update in a few months. The important thing right now is that it opens up his house district in the Mobile area. It voted for Trump by 29 points, but includes the mid-size city of Mobile and has a substantial African-American population (27%), and is thus trending slightly blue. If Doug Jones wins re-election, he’d probably also win this district, so Byrne’s departure moves this seat from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
Howard Schultz
I feel like this Emerson poll isn’t getting enough press. In a three-way matchup with Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, and Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, Schultz polls 12%! That’s almost enough to get to a debate, and certainly enough to throw the election to Trump, as he leads Harris 45-43 in this poll, while in a straight-up Trump vs. Harris matchup, Harris leads 52-48. While third-party candidates usually peter out by the end, even half of the percent of the vote in this poll for Schultz would be groundbreaking. He’d get 2x the vote of Gary Johnson, also known as the What is Aleppo? guy, in 2016, and he certainly made a splash.
Virginia
Amid trying times for Democratic state leadership, a test to see if they can hold a deep-blue D+34 state house seat tonight. It will be hard for Democrat Dr. Ibraheem Samirah to separate himself in a good way from the statewide officials in turmoil right now, as he too has made some racist, anti-Semitic comments. He has since apologized. I think he’s still the favorite, as Virginia is trending to the left as fast as a racecar. It doesn’t appear the GOP is making much of a play here to support their candidate, Gregg Nelson, despite this seat being in GOP hands as recently as 2016. Likely Democratic
The story will probably be in the margins. If Nelson can hold Samirah to, let’s say, 57%, that would be a result he should be satisfied about, all things considered. If this is what happens, or the result is worse for Samirah, it would show the Democrat’s tricky spot in Virginia is taking its toll, and the GOP may be able to hold on to the state legislature later this year.
(1)https://tossupcentral.com/kamala-harris-makes-it-official/
Excellent reporting!