Over the last few months, I have been very pessimistic about Trump’s chances to win re-election. Trump has gone past the point of no return for many Americans. But I have said that if he campaigns smartly, appealing to everyone that he can, he can stage a legitimate comeback. Now that the RNC is over, one must ask: What does Trump have to do to win? What does Trump have to say to win? As the election nears, what are the signs that suggest a Trump comeback to defy the odds once again?
Author’s note: The political positions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the positions of the author himself. Rather, they reflect the political positions of his base voters or the potential swing voters Trump could sway.
Looking Back to 2016
In 2016, Trump was behind Clinton when it came to policy details. He won by successfully portraying Hillary Clinton as part of “a swamp” that valued personal gain, appealing to corporations and lobbying firms, and good relations with other countries more than a hard-working American people and the constitutional, Western principles that have guided our country to greatness.
It’s this “swamp”, Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell, who are eternally obstructionist towards each other. Trump must allude to and shift blame to them this election cycle. He has proposed an image of the DC establishment that is often turned obstructionist when he wants to get something done for the American people. He must campaign on the most powerful tool of his presidency, the Executive Order.
Trump would benefit from being a “normalcy” candidate. He should run as someone who would bring the country back to 2018, before the days of a bolstered progressive movement and COVID-19. Trump will never gain the approval of a large majority of people, but if he campaigns the right way, he can make himself appealing in a way to enough swing voters as well as his base to win narrowly. Trump’s approval ratings aren’t moving that much, but if he can effectively attack Biden and Biden fails to respond competently, he has a good shot at another upset. Below are three issues (COVID-19, race relations, and the economy) that have caused Trump to fall behind Biden since April, and how he can campaign to get on top.
COVID-19: The Blame Game
The beginning of Trump’s initial downfall in polling was the federal government’s poor handling of the COVID-19 crisis. Think back to late March, when the pandemic really started to kick in. Remember when the CDC suggested that mask wearing doesn’t protect against infection, that asymptomatic transmission was rare, and that economic lockdowns and social distancing regulations wouldn’t be necessary by the summer? It’s crazy to think how much we didn’t know back then, and how much we still don’t know. Trump should argue: Why should he take the blame for the mistakes of the scientific community early on?
He should portray the COVID-19 crisis as not only something he couldn’t get control of, but that no President could control without gutting constitutional rights. Trump should go after people like Chinese President Xi Jinping, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, and New York City mayor Bill DeBlasio for falsely claiming COVID-19 was under control in their jurisdictions, allowing more of the virus to slip into the country undetected.
Joe Biden is on the record saying “I would shut it (the country) down; I would listen to the scientists.” “We’re going to do whatever it takes to save lives.” A second lockdown would save some lives, but the economical, constitutional, and mental toll would be devastating. Trump’s line of attack is simple. If Biden wins, we’ll go back to April. Biden also called Trump’s Wuhan travel ban in February “xenophobic”, even though in hindsight, it delayed the onset of COVID-19 in the United States.
Return to Normalcy
America is facing an existential question. How and will things fully revert to normal? How many cases each day in your state is too many to resume normal life? 0? 5? 50? How effective will future scientific advancements, like vaccines or plasma treatments, be in reducing the virus’ risk? Is herd immunity a viable option? When will the student from State College be able to party with his fraternity without the social akwardness of having half of your face covered? What time will the dad from Green Bay be able to high-five total strangers at a packed Lambeau Field? When will the teacher from Tallahassee be able to take off her mask on a hot, August day and help fundraise for prom? These are real situations for real people.
As the months roll on, Americans will become more anxious that COVID-19 will always be something we have to worry about going forward. Are mask mandates and regulations on large social gatherings permanent? Governors like Andrew Cuomo and Mike DeWine are clear they have no intention to lift social distancing and mask mandates anytime soon. The future is uncertain, which is why if Trump wants to cut through the noise and get on top of the coronavirus debate, he should make a pledge. If re-elected, mask and social distancing mandates will cease to exist by the end of his second term.
I don’t think this pledge is too unrealistic. The rate at which we’re making scientific advancements and discoveries against the virus is encouraging. Instead of trying to ignore the problem, bragging about slowing down testing, brag about Operation Warp Speed, the public-private partnership that claims it’s on track to deliver 300 million doses of a COVID vaccine by year’s end. The chance that we can’t find a way to largely contain the virus’ deadliness, by January 2025, is relatively small.
If Trump is making a complete return to normal a priority, but Biden is discussing more lockdowns, Trump becomes enticing to many.
Race Relations
More Americans than ever are having their eyes opened to the injustices around them following the death of George Floyd. Trump should come off as someone who is also having this experience. He should champion an executive order he made in the weeks following Floyd’s death, one that created a national police misconduct database, banned chokeholds and other maneuvers that restrict breathing unless an officer’s life is in danger, and increases the role of mental health professionals in law enforcement. Trump would be well-served to stay away from politically incorrect language from here on out, like calling undocumented Mexican immigrants “tough hombres”, or calling COVID-19 “kung flu”. As more Americans realize the force that racism and racial profiling still plays in America, it’s best the President stay quiet.
Sometimes it feels like Trump supporters are living on a different planet than Democrats. In some areas, like how they get their news and their political priorities, they might as well be. Trump until now has used vague statements, dog whistles, that compel his base voters but not the majority of Americans. Trump needs to get more specific and detailed in his attack lines.
Joe Biden has made it clear he condemns the rioting and has no interest defunding the police. It’s not prudent for Trump to try portraying him as someone who would. Instead, Trump should focus on his own achievements in strengthening and expanding law enforcement. It’s an unpleasant time to be a police officer. You put yourself in harm’s way to protect people every time you’re on duty. Some of those people want to defund your department. When dealing with an African-American that is endangering life and property, as opposed to a white person, you have to be particularly careful about how you handle the situation. One mistake, and the public is turned against you and your department. Anxiety runs high in police departments, and Trump should tap into that. Earning the endorsement of the supposedly liberal NYPD union is a good sign that Trump is succeeding on this front.
The Economy
The final issue that has caused Trump to lose ground is America’s crumbled COVID economy. If COVID cases keep decreasing in America, the problem will eventually fix itself, but not before the election. However, there is a silver lining. Stimulus checks, something the 116th Congress HAS gotten done, have boosted income for low-wage workers. That could be through the direct payments or the raises companies had to offer to get people back to work. Increases in manufacturing, Trump’s international deals, and minimum wage increases were already increasing income for low wage, often working-class workers. Trump should flip the script: Democrats say they will improve conditions for low wage workers, so argue the biggest gains for them have been during his administration. He should continue to champion record low African-American and Latino unemployment.
An attack line against Joe Biden is that he will prioritize expanding burdening environmental regulations over helping small businesses recover from COVID. Democratic operatives quietly agree that Biden will expand business regulations.
A good attack Trump has been using is tying Joe Biden to Barack Obama. As Obama’s VP, why should voters expect anything from Biden we haven’t seen from Obama? Obama wasn’t the most broadly popular President, there are swing voters who don’t like him.
How Big Will Trump’s Electoral College Advantage Be?
In 2016, Trump had an advantage in the Electoral College. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1%. Trump won the tipping-point state, Wisconsin, by 0.8% points, for a 2.9% advantage. The kinds of voters that flipped Democratic in 2018, the college-educated, people of color, and urban residents, are more likely to come from non-swing states. Trump’s Electoral College advantage has grown. I’ll multiply his 2016 advantage by 1.75 to calculate the upper ceiling of his advantage this time around. Biden could win the popular vote by up to 5% and Trump could still win re-election. Compared to reality, this estimate is very likely high. This could evaporate if certain demographics (i.e. high-school educated suburbanites) move more towards Biden. Biden leads the national polls by 7.1%. He’s leading by an average of 3.6% in the four states most likely to be tipping-point (Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania). This is a 3.5% differential.
Vote-By-Mail: The Polls Worst Nightmare?
The expansion of vote-by-mail and retraction of in-person voting could skew turnout, throwing off polls even more. It’s been shown that liberals are more likely to vote by mail. However, officials might use this as an excuse shut down in-person polling places, especially in urban, majority-minority, Democrat-dominated neighborhoods. Compounding this issue is the COVID-19 pandemic that will keep some unenthused voters home, and that the USPS is kind of a mess right now, voting by mail might not be as easy as in theory. So many uncertainties exist.
Clinton led national polls on Election Day by 3.2%. She won by 2.1%, for a 1.1% difference, in actuality a relatively small error. It was the state polls that were way off in 2016. Anyway, I’m going to go big and quadruple the potential polling error from 2016. National polls could be off by a maximum of 4.4%. The actual error will likely be a bit smaller than that.
How Small A Lead Is Too Small For Biden?
Adding the two bold figures together, 4.4% and 5%, gives you 9.4%. In theory, Biden must be leading by 9.5% or more in the RCP average on Election Day to be 100% sure of victory. Right now he’s leading by 7.1%. I don’t believe this to be a cause for concern for Biden quite yet. A lot of strange things would have to happen for the polling and Electoral College to be THAT off. Biden will in a likelihood be elected if his polling lead is near, at, or above 6%.
If Trump stages a comeback like the one I describe, some people who have been convinced by their increasingly political friends to be anti-Trump right now will change their mind at the 11th hour, resulting in another pro-Trump polling error. Assuming a Trump Electoral College advantage of 3.5, if polls are twice as off as they were in 2016, Trump wins if Biden leads the polls 5.6%. This is what I’d consider the “danger zone” for Biden. That race is Lean Biden at best, and maybe even Toss-Up. Expect a long election night if Biden’s national polling lead is much below 6.
Other Signs Of A Trump Comeback
The debates, which will be watched by more than ever because more people are in their homes, will be a crucial moment for Trump. He’ll be put in a position where he has to respond to questions from people outside his base. How he responds will likely determine whether he can comeback or fall apart. Trump is also being less cautious in COVID-era campaigning than Biden, still delivering speeches to crowds of thousands. Biden, who isn’t the best with words, will be hard-pressed to effectively respond to Trump’s tactics. Maybe it’s inevitable Biden’s lead will shrink with time.
Thank you for reading my article. If you want more Toss-Up Central, visit my homepage. New articles will be posted at least every other Sunday at 6PM.