Two crucial ratings changes are being made in the Wolverine State today, but they don’t both benefit the same party.
In the presidential race, we are moving the state to Leans Democrat. It was in Toss-Up before. Right now, Michigan is the only state that Trump won, or Clinton won, for that matter, that is now leaning towards the other party. We made this change because there have been 3 polls since January pitting Trump against every major Democrat candidate in the state. He has not led in a single one of these polls. Sometimes, he has trailed by double digits against Biden or Sanders, who are the two most likely to win the nomination at this point. You might be thinking: Well, Toss-Up Central guy. Aren’t polls in Michigan notoriously bad and aren’t good to base predictions off of? While you’re right they’re inaccurate, if we look at all results since Trump won, we see that Democrats have been killing it here. They won the governor’s mansion and Senate seat by 10% and 6%, respectively, hold every statewide elected office, and have overcome Republican gerrymanders to nearly flip the state House, and hold 50% of the state’s congressional districts. While the state is not too far gone for Trump to win it again, it’s clear Democrats start on a higher pedestal.
We’re moving Texas from Likely to Lean Trump, because Biden is actually leading Trump in polling in a state famous for it’s redness. The state has 38 electoral votes, so this movement is very important. The state’s suburbs have swung wildly left recently, and the state has 3 huge metro areas. There are now 5 states that Lean Trump, and all but one have more than 10 EVs. The 5 states in Lean Democrat (Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, and Nevada) all have 10 EVs or less, except for Michigan. What this means is that if Democrats have a blowout win, they could get an electoral college landslide upwards of 400. But if Trump won by more than expected, it translates to a much less impressive electoral college win. Here’s the update map:
On the bright side for Republicans, we are moving the Michigan Senate race from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat. This is a reaction to John James running for this seat, a veteran who announced his candidacy on the 75th anniversary of D-day. He ran for this seat in 2018, and while everyone was focused on the other events of the night, he was able to sneak in a surprisingly low loss margin of 6%, in a race that was thought to be won by double-digits. While largely ignored by the media, he generated a lot of excitement among Trump fans both nationally and in Michigan, perhaps because they wanted an African-American Trump supporter in the Senate. He got nearly 30% of the vote in Wayne county, a African-American majority county that includes Detroit. Republicans didn’t really have business doing that well there. Now, he’s facing another incumbent who is arguably weaker in his Senate election history and approval than the one he faced in 2018, Gary Peters. This makes Michigan the 2nd best pickup opportunity for a Republican flip in the Senate (#1 is Alabama). I expect Republicans will try to get this one now that James is in.
And here’s the updated Senate map:
