The two candidates that struck me and the nation as having done the best job are Julian Castro on the first night and Kamala Harris on the second night.
1st Night
Castro was very charismatic and his attacks on Beto regarding immigration landed. People seem to be taking him a lot more seriously now, when he was a relative nobody 100 hours ago. Speaking of Beto, he may have had the roughest night of both debates. He seems a shadow of the happy, energetic Beto we saw during his Senate campaign, and, quite honestly, he looked kind of ugly on stage. His Spanglish answers probably didn’t do him any favors either. I don’t remember hearing Spanish being spoken on the 2nd night, because it wasn’t well received the night before, and the candidates avoided it. In terms of who else did well, Cory Booker came off as very personable and, for some, relatable as he talked about his low-income, inner-city upbringing. For his part, John Delaney did good on policy with what little time he was given. I can’t be the only one bothered by the moderators telling him and only him “You’ll get your turn.” He’s definitely courting the centrist votes. Amy Klobuchar did pretty decent. She’s almost like a female Pete Buttigieg. The ideal scenario for Elizabeth Warren was a star performance that would allow her to pull away. She only gave an average one, not a terrible one, just an average, expected one.
2nd Night
Kamala Harris had the best performance of any candidate on both nights. She had a great one-liner “America does not want to witness a food fight, they want to know how were going to put food on their table.” She brought out the big guns on Joe Biden, attacking his record on busing, which landed like an anvil. Joe Biden’s response was equally as damaging, as it had a very 60s-era state’s rights advocate feeling to it. Marianne Williamson successfully didn’t make a fool of herself, but she’s no more serious of a contender either. Given the primary challenge in his home district, and Swalwell’s poor performance, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the first major Democrat to drop out. Among the people from Colorado, John Hickenlooper did a much better job than Michael Bennet, the former blows the later out of the water in terms of charisma. Buttigieg also did a pretty good job, coming off as calm, easy-going, and intelligent. All the other candidates put up average, anticipated performances.
What Does It All Mean Going Forward?
I think this debate will inevitably change something, especially in a field as volatile as this. I think the two things we’re most likely to see are Julian Castro and Beto O’Rourke more or less swapping in the polls. There both rising political stars from Texas. Castro’s problem of being overshadowed by O’Rourke has reversed. Of course, this is just a swap of 1% and 3%, and both will probably make the next debate anyway in this scenario, so it won’t matter to much. The larger change we can expect is Kamala Harris joining the top 3 (Warren, Sanders, Biden), or at least coming close to them, in polls. Those three were seen as pulling away from the rest of the pack pre-debate. Along with Swalwell, some other Democrats that could drop out are Jay Inslee (who could go back to running for governor) and Michael Bennet (who’s being overshadowed in his home state by Hickenlooper). I do remain more suspicious than other political pundits that this group of candidates will be stubborn, with most candidates staying in the race as long as they possibly can. Some candidates that turned in above-average performances, like Klobuchar, Castro, or Delaney, may get slight boosts that could save them from being disqualified for the September debates. (Candidates need 2% in the polls or 130k individual donors). Finally, the Warren vs. Sanders fight for the progressive wing of the party isn’t likely to change much, as the two candidates debated on different nights and both did just OK. We’ll see if my predictions come true in the polls that will come out soon, and I will adjust the Best Shot Tracker accordingly.