| District | Old Rating | New Rating |
| NC-9 Vacant | Toss-Up | Lean Republican |
The congressional re-do election between Dan McCready (D) and Dan Bishop (R), AKA “The Battle of the Dans” is one of the few marquee elections this year. It’s the only competitive congressional race this year, and thus money is flowing in. The candidates have raised a combined total of about $2,030,498. Some background info: Trump won this district by 13 points in 2016, but the race between McCready and another Republican, Mark Harris was decided by 905 votes. It was initially thought Mark Harris would go to Congress, but a court threw out the results of the election due to people in Harris’ campaign “collecting” absentee votes in two Democrat-leaning counties and destroying them instead of turning them in to be counted. This, among other things, shows Harris was a problematic candidate. The GOP candidate this time, Dan Bishop, is much better. He represents suburban Mecklenburg County in the State Senate, a county where McCready improved the most from Hillary Clinton last time. He’s a better fundraiser. Some have pointed to him being the author of the bathroom bill in 2016 (making it so North Carolinians have to use the bathroom that matches the gender on their birth certificate) as something that could be used against him, but both campaigns aren’t making a big deal of it. Even if McCready did, it may not be all that damaging in this culturally conservative district. Democrat turnout has also not been particularly high in special elections this year, as opposed to Trump’s first two years. One poll shows Dan Bishop up by 4, while the other, an internal poll for McCready’s campaign, shows the race tied. Due to the reasons I stated above, I see Dan Bishop as a minor favorite at this point. This election could serve as a pre-requisite to the governor elections later this year. If a Republican can win against a moderate Democrat in a district Trump got 54% of the vote, it would bode well for Republican governor candidates in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky in similar situations, where Trump got 58%, 58%, and 63%, respectively.
Other House Rating Changes
| District | Old Rating | New Rating |
| AZ-6 Schweikert (R) | Likely R | Lean R |
| CA-10 Harder (D) | Lean D | Likely D |
| CA-21 Cox (D) | Likely D | Lean D |
| IA-2 (Open, D) | Likely D | Toss-Up |
| MI-3 Amash (I) | Safe R | Toss-Up |
| PA-10 Perry (R) | Lean R | Toss-Up |
AZ-6
Schweikert is undergoing a probe by the House Ethics Committee, which will be used against him. He has contracted a strong challenger in Hiral Triperni, who outperformed Clinton by double-digits twice in neighboring AZ-6. This is a Trump+10, McSally+3 district, so if Triperni replicates her outperformance, she would win. Schweikert won by 10 in 2018. We’re moving this sleeper race one place closer to Toss-Up.
CA-10
Josh Harder’s fundraising has been incredible so far in 2019, outraising fellow Democrats who are much higher profile, like Rashida Tlaib, Ilahn Omar, and Ayanna Pressley. He raised $774,849 in the second quarter, and about the same in the first. The two Republicans running against him seem mediocre at best.
CA-21
TJ Cox caught incumbent Republican David Valadao sleeping in 2018, winning by less than 1%. Valadao is back for a re-match, unlikely to repeat the mistakes of 2018. Still, Cox is now the Democrat incumbent in a Clinton+16 district, so I’ll give him the advantage.
IA-2
Popular incumbent David Loesback has announced his retirement at the end of the term. Trump won this district by 4%, and it’s unclear what party this district will support on the presidential level in 2020. Both parties found good candidates, former congressman Bobby Schilling (R) and Lieutenant Governor candidate Rita Hart (D). This is shaping up to be a marquee race.
MI-3
Justin Amash’s decision on the 4th of July to leave the Republican party sent a shockwave throughout the political world. A three-way race between the now Independent Amash, a Republican, and a Democrat, is expected to take shape here. Republicans have some very credible candidates. It’s unclear which party he’d take more votes away from. He could either split the Republican vote, giving Democrats a narrow victory, or split the anti-Trump vote with the Democrat (He left the GOP because he wanted to impeach Trump), allowing the Republican to win big. Or, if he’ll do a little bit of both, allowing him to win. It will be a chaotic, important race, and one worth watching. If he wins re-election, it could pave the way for candidates with no party affiliation in the future.
PA-10
Freedom Caucus member Scott Perry, who is considered a little too conservative for his moderate Trump+10 district, is getting a strong challenge from State Auditor Eugene DePasquale, an easygoing moderate who won this district in 2016, whose got a lot of hype surrounding him.
Thank you for reading this post. Here’s the updated chart:
