2020 Election Night Watch Guide

After a brutal year of unprecedented tribulations, and a campaign that rivals 2000 and 2016 in its turbulence and senselessness, the big day is finally here. Will Mitch McConnell remain Senate Majority Leader, obstructing a lot of the Democratic agenda, or will Chuck Schumer lead the upper chamber in 2021, opening the floodgates for change? Will Republicans gain some of the ground in the House they lost in 2018, or tank even further? Can Trump defy long odds once again and win in a spectacular upset?

As much as I’d like to say we’ll know the answer to these questions and more by next morning, this may not be the case. Due to COVID-19 and a national effort to raise voter turnout, people have been voting earlier by mail at higher rates than ever. While a person can vote by mail up to Election Day, it may take days or weeks for that vote to travel through the overloaded mail system. Some states don’t allow mail votes to start being counted until Election Day. Due to this, it will take many states days or weeks to count all of the votes, leaving close races uncalled for days on end. These states are “slow-counting”. Some states allow for counting of mail votes before Election Day and throw out any ballot that doesn’t arrive at a polling place by Election Day. These states are “fast-counting”. It’s important to note that there could be a post-Election Day blue surge. Democrats are more likely to vote by mail, and smaller counties with less votes, which are usually Republican, will count their votes faster than the big cities. If Trump is leading in certain swing states early on Election Night, then it’s still very possible for Biden to come back.

The President

Let’s cut to the chase. Hillary Clinton led in national polls by about 3 points headed into Election Day 2016, she won the popular vote by 2 points. Joe Biden has maintained about an 8-point lead in polls. Political polls and pundits will have to be even further off the mark than in 2016 for Trump to win. Even if polls are three times as wrong as they were in 2016, and Trump’s Electoral College advantage expands from 2016, he still likely comes up short. Almost everything has to go right for Trump to be re-elected. The fundamentals are also different. In 2016, Trump was the outsider fighting against Hillary Clinton and the swamp, promising change. Trump’s base was still growing. Now after nearly 4 years of being president, he has become part of the swamp, and will be viewed as responsible for the crisis-plagued country of today. Democrats were complacent headed into Election Day 2016, but they’re more energized than ever headed into Election Day 2020.

Polls have been trending towards Trump a little bit. Perhaps there are “shy” Trump voters that don’t want to reveal their true political alignment for fear of social ridicule. Perhaps the revelations about Joe Biden benefiting from his son’s sketchy business dealings in Ukraine, or the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett, has helped Trump more than polls indicate. Trump has hit the campaign trail with everything he has since his being cured of COVID-19, while Biden has been more cautious. This has been an election like no other, it’s not smart in this unpredictable year to say for certain one candidate’s going to win. In this guide, I’ll provide info on what to watch for hour-by-hour if you’re looking for a Trump re-election.

The Senate

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage in the U.S. Senate. If Biden wins, Kamala Harris would be the tie-breaking vote, so most likely Democrats need to flip 3 seats to gain control of the Senate, or 4 for an absolute majority. They’re in the driver’s seat to flip Arizona, Colorado, and Maine, but Republicans will likely flip Alabama. Democrats need to find another seat to flip to gain control. Throughout this guide, I’ll point out potential states where they could find this seat.

All times listed in this article are UTC+5, Eastern Standard Time. Subtract 1 hour from the time for Central Standard Time, 2 hours for Mountain Standard time, and 3 hours for Pacific Standard Time.

6:00 PM: Indiana and Kentucky

The Indianapolis skyline at night. The northern part of the city is part of the first competitive House race in the country to close its polls.

There are only a couple races closing their polls this early that are competitive. Indiana’s 5th Congressional District is a district that stretches from north Indianapolis through the suburbs to more rural areas to the north. It voted for Trump by 12 points, but Democrats think they have a shot. Polls show Trump fading in Indiana since the economy began its downturn. This shift is especially potent in this upper-middle class district. If Democrat Christina Hale flips this district for Democrats over Republican Victoria Spartz, this is a sign Democrats may be on their way to success up and down the ballot. In the primary, Indiana produced timely results, but we may have to wait a couple of days for a call here if the race’s final margin is less than a few points.

Socially moderate small-town Democrat Josh Hicks also has a decent shot at flipping Kentucky’s 6th district, based around Lexington and Frankfort. It took a lot longer for Kentucky to count all of its votes in its primary, so chances are we won’t know who won this race until next week. Also in Kentucky, it is expected that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will be re-elected in the ruby-red state. But, Democrat Amy McGrath has been raising a lot of money and has had a few moments, some good, some bad. McConnell has some of the lowest home-state approval ratings of any Senator. A McGrath upset would be an event that would cause more shockwaves throughout the world than a nuclear bomb.

7:00 PM: The Appetizer

Miami is the largest city in Florida, the state that could be the best early indicator of what will happen.

Polls close in part or whole in six more states: Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont.

One of Trump’s best opportunities to flip a state Clinton won in 2016 is New Hampshire, which he only lost by less than 3,000 votes. Biden failed to get 10% in the New Hampshire primary. Democrats hope a surge in Hillsborough and Rockingham counties, on the Massachusetts border, carries Biden through. Trump hopes the state’s independent attitude, plus an improvement in the northern, rural areas makes New Hampshire a bright spot. Watch to see if he breaks 55% in Coos County. Winning a Clinton state early would be a statement victory, showing that Trump isn’t out of it yet.

Florida, after the debacle in 2000, has since become known for its swift vote counting. If Trump loses Florida, he can’t afford to lose any other swing state he won in 2016. There are two forces at play here. Biden is consistently polling better among senior citizens, while Donald Trump is polling better among Hispanics. If Biden can get a third of the vote in Citrus and/or Sumter counties, it will show Biden is improving. Watch to see if Trump holds Biden to less than 60% in Miami-Dade county, or to 57% in Osceola County, two majority-Hispanic counties. If he can do this, he could provide down ballot coattails in Florida’s 26th and 27th districts, two Miami-area seats Republicans are trying to flip. The swing counties of DuVal, Pinellas, Seminole, and Monroe are also worth keeping watch of.

In South Carolina, a crucial Senate race in which Senate Judicial Chair Lindsey Graham, who was instrumental in the confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett, faces off against Jaime Harrison, who is the best Democratic campaigner in South Carolina in a long time. This is a reach seat for Democrats, a liberal African-American Democrat like Jaime Harrison faces an uphill battle in the state. Watch to see if Harrison can get 60% or more in Charleston county or 75% or more in Richland County (Columbia), or if he can win the more rural, swing counties of Barnwell, Calhoun, and/or Chester.

In neighboring Georgia, there are not one but two Senate races, thanks to the resignation of Johnny Isakson. In one race, former congressional candidate Jon Ossoff faces incumbent Republican David Perdue. The other race is a four-way race between Republicans Kelly Loeffler and Doug Collins, and Democrats Raphael Warnock and Matt Lieberman. In Georgia, if no candidate gets 50% or more of the vote, it triggers a runoff election in December between the two candidates that receive the most votes. Democrats are looking for high turnout in the “Big 4” counties in metro-Atlanta: Cobb, Fulton, DeKalb, and Gwinnett. Ossoff should aim for 56% in Cobb, 59% in Gwinnett, 75% in Fulton, and 85% in DeKalb. Georgia, with 16 Electoral Votes, is favored to vote Trump, but just narrowly so.

On the South Carolina coast, a top pick-up opportunity for House Republicans is South Carolina’s 1st district. Charismatic incumbent Democrat Joe Cunningham is facing conservative darling state legislator Nancy Mace. Republican flip opportunities also exist in Georgia’s 6th, and Virginia’s 2nd and 5th. Democrats are confident in their chances to flip Georgia’s 7th and Virginia’s 5th, where Democratic Dr. Cameron Webb tries to join a wave of doctors being elected to Congress faces off against the culturally right-wing Bob Good. In that race, Webb should try to flip Nelson and Fluvanna Counties, and aim for nearly 70% of the vote in Albemarle County and two-thirds of the vote in the city of Danville.  

In Virginia, Election Day votes will be counted first, and the smaller, more Republican counties in the south and west, will get done counting first. If you see Trump leading in Virginia early on, it is likely fool’s gold for the Trump campaign. The election will almost certainly swing to Biden once the Washington DC metro area reports more votes and the absentee vote comes in.

7:30 PM: Wait, It’s All Ohio?

Cincinnati, on the Ohio River, is not only going to play a major part in who wins Ohio, but is also home to a competitive congressional race.

Three more states close polls: Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina. West Virginia doesn’t have any important races, but Ohio and North Carolina are crucial swing states. If Trump loses either of these states, especially Ohio, it’s game over for him. 

Ohio, with 18 Electoral votes, leans Trump. If Biden is going to win, he’ll have to do much better than Hillary Clinton in the suburbs. Biden should get over 50% in Montgomery and Lorain counties, close to 60% in Hamilton County, and 45% in Delaware. Hamilton County, which includes Cincinnati, is of particular importance because it’s the home of most of the population of Ohio’s 1st congressional district, a prime Democratic flip opportunity. Democrat Kate Schroeder is trying to knock off longtime incumbent Republican Steve Chabot.

North Carolina, with 15 Electoral votes, is a Toss-Up, but Biden holds the edge. Biden should try to kill it in the big cities and get 60% in Wake County (Raleigh), and two-thirds of the vote in Mecklenburg (Charlotte). The rural African-American vote is also an important demographic that could swing either way relative to 2016. Watch to see who wins Nash and Martin Counties. If Trump is to win re-election, he’ll need to improve among non-white votes, African-Americans and Latinos specifically. North Carolina also has an important Senate race, where unpopular incumbent Republican Thom Tillis is trying to hold on against Democrat Cal Cunningham, who’s otherwise great campaign was rattled by an extramarital affair with a staffer in California. 

North Carolina’s governor race is consequential, as the party that wins it could help draw Congressional Districts more favorable to their party. Incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper is expected to win. Democrats are also looking to flip the North Carolina State House, giving them control of the North Carolina state government. 

The earlier election results, the mail-in and early votes, are likely to be more favorable to Democrats. It will be then up to the in-person Election Day voters, whose votes will be counted later in the night, to close the gap for Republicans. The same is true for Ohio.

Both states will start releasing results fast on Election Night, but election officials in North Carolina have cautioned close races may be too close to call on Election Night.

Democrats are going to flip at least 2 House seats in North Carolina, districts 2 and 6. Republicans are favored, but not safe, in districts 8, 9, and 11. If the GOP can hold their losses in North Carolina to two, that’s a victory.

8:00 PM: The Piece de Resistance

San Antonio, Texas, will be one of the most important metropolitan areas on Election Night.

At 8PM, polls close in all of the Northeast except for New York, the Deep South east of the Mississippi River, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Michigan, Illinois, Texas, and the Dakotas.

The most important swing states closing are the rust belt states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. If Biden wins both as I expect him to, he only has to flip one more Electoral Vote to reach 270. Erie and Northampton Counties in PA and Kent and Saginaw Counties in MI could be bellwethers in their respective states. Republicans would like to chip away a bit at Democratic margins in Philly and Detroit, cities with large African-American populations. In Michigan, Senate Democrats are on defense, with Democrat Gary Peters against Republican John James. A James victory would be a major blow to Democrats hopes of flipping the Senate. Unfortunately, it will take multiple days for these states to count most of their votes. The results will become more favorable to Democrats as the days go on. We’ll probably have to look elsewhere for definitive results.

One of the biggest and fast-counting states is Texas. With 38 Electoral votes, it would be a death sentence for Trump if Biden flips it. Watch to see if BIden can get 50% in Tarrant County (Fort Worth), or over 60% in Bexar (San Antonio) and Harris (Houston). It’s in these three areas that Democrats hope to pile on gains in the House. There are over 10 seats Democrats believe are competitive, but the four Republican-held seats that are the most competitive are districts 21-24. Democrats also hope to flip the Texas State House, giving them control of part of one branch of the government of the nation’s 2nd-largest state.

The once popular Maine Republican Susan Collins is in the fight of her life after siding with Trump on key votes and making a few political miscues. She’s facing Democrat Sara Gideon, who has raised towers of money. This is one of the three seats Democrats are favored to flip. York, Sagadahoc, Lincoln, and Waldo counties are the bellwethers here. Maine is one of two states that awards electoral votes by Congressional District. Maine itself is likely to vote for Biden, but Maine’s 2nd district is a Toss-Up that tilts Trump. The district covers all inland areas, the Quebec and New Brunswick borders, and downeast Maine.

Republicans hope to counter a Democratic gain in Maine with their own flip in Alabama. Incumbent Democrat Doug Jones faces former Auburn University Football Coach Tommy Tuberville. This seat is the Republican’s best chance to flip a congressional seat. Republicans should look to flip Pickens, Talladega, Butler, and Clarke counties, four rural counties that narrowly voted for Doug Jones in 2017.

In the Great Plains, three more fast-counting states have important races down the ballot. In Oklahoma City, district 5 is one of the Republican’s best chances to flip a Democratic House seat. In Missouri, northeast of Saint Louis, Republican Ann Wagner is trying to hold out against Democrat Jill Schupp in a red-leaning district that is trending blue. Missouri Democrats also hope to flip Missouri’s governorship. They face longer odds, but incumbent Republican Mike Parson has become unpopular due to a poor handling of COVID-19. And in Kansas, it’s “The Battle of the Doctors”. Democrat Dr. Barbara Bollier faces Republican Dr. Roger Marshall. Republicans are favored to end up holding the seat. 

One last intriguing race worth keeping an eye on is NJ-2. Incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew switched parties last year, he used to be a Democrat. This enraged local Democrats, who nominated Amy Kennedy to run against him. Kennedy married into the famous political dynasty. Unfortunately, New Jersey will likely take two or three weeks to produce complete vote counts.

8:30 PM: Just Arkansas

The only race really worth mentioning in ruby-red Arkansas is in the Little Rock-area AR-2. Incumbent Republican French Hill faces off against state legislator Joyce Elliott. Hill is the favorite.

9:00 PM: The Second Course

Milwaukee is the largest city in Wisconsin, arguably the swing state that will have the most impact on who becomes President.

Polls close now in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Although, we aren’t expecting results out of Arizona until 10:00.

Wisconsin is one of two swing states closing polls. With 10 Electoral Votes, it could be the state that decides the election. Biden has been leading polls here by a wide margin, but so did Hillary Clinton. Kenosha, the site of social unrest following the police shooting of Jacob Blake, could very well be a bellwether. Biden should try to flip some rural counties in Wisconsin, especially in the Southeast. State officials claim that we’ll have a winner by 7 am Wednesday. 

The other swing state is Arizona. In this state, which has 11 Electoral votes, the candidate that leads in Maricopa County (Phoenix) almost always wins the election. Arizona and Colorado are the two other states Senate Democrats should flip. Still, barring a landslide, it will probably take until at least Thursday to project a winner. In Colorado, Democrat John Hickenlooper should win Adams, Jefferson, and Larimer counties. Democrats are also looking to flip both Houses of the Arizona state House, ending the current Republican dominance.

While Nebraska, a fast-counting state, is ruby-red, the state awards Electoral votes based on who wins each congressional district like Maine. The most competitive is the Omaha based NE-2, which includes parts of Douglas and Sarpy counties in the eastern part of the state. NE-2 is also competitive on the congressional level.

New York has 5 very competitive House races. Republicans are playing defense on Long Island in districts 1 and 2, and in the Syracuse area (district 24). Democrats are on defense in districts 11 (Staten Island) and 22 (Utica to Binghamton). New York won’t start counting mail-in ballots until after Election Day, making it a slow-counting state. 

In New Mexico, Republicans look favored to flip NM-2, a Trump district that covers the southern half of the state. If Republican Yvette Herrell wins convincingly, it could be a sign of a Republican improvement among Latinos.

In the Land of 10,000 Lakes, Republicans are confident in their ability to finally defeat incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson in MN-7. The district voted for Trump by over 30 points, and it’s a mini-miracle that Peterson is still in office. Trump thinks he has a chance to outright flip Minnedota. That’s a tall order. A good start for Trump would be to flip two counties in the Iron Range, Carlton and Lake. He’ll also need to keep Biden’s margins down in the Minneapolis and Rochester metros. He can’t let Biden get much more than 50% in Dakota, Washington, or Olmsted counties. A Biden loss in  Minnesota basically guarantees a Biden loss nationwide. Democrats are confident in their ability to flip MN-1, an agricultural Trump+18 district that is nonetheless diversifying and has a booming healthcare industry. Democrats are also favored to flip the Minnesota State Senate, which would give them full control of the 3 branches of Minnesota’s government.

10:00 PM: The Prairies and the Rockies

Cedar Rapids, Iowa, finds itself an important city in four different elections.

Iowa, Montana, Utah, and Nevada are closing polls now.

Iowa is the most important state of these four. It’s a swing state with 6 Electoral Votes, a very competitive Senate race between incumbent Republican Joni Ernst and former Congressional candidate Teresa Greenfield, and a trio of House seats the GOP thinks they can flip. State officials claim they will have timely results, but we all know how that turned out with the Iowa caucuses this year. Three bellwether counties in this working-class/agricultural state are Winnishiek, Clinton, and Dallas. If Democrats flip the Iowa State House, they will end the current Republican trifecta in Iowa.

Montana is also being targeted by Senate Democrats. It’s “The Battle of the Steves”, incumbent Republican Steve Daines against Governor Steve Bullock. Montana also has a very close governor race, which Republicans hope to flip. Montana should be a swift-counting state. Watch Yellowstone, Cascade, Park, and Lake counties.

Nevada, a Clinton-won state, is a state the Trump campaign believes it could flip. But they’ll have to keep Biden’s vote percentage down in Clark County to about 53% to have a chance. Nevada is a slow-counting state.

Utah has one competitive race, in Utah’s 4th Congressional District, but as a slow-counting state, we’ll be waiting weeks for a winner there.

11:00 PM: The West Coast (and Idaho)

Republicans are trying to win back two House seats in Orange County.

Honestly, there isn’t much action expected at 11PM. All of these states are safe either Trump or Biden, and most are slow-counting. The only truly competitive races are for the House of Representatives. Republicans could gain in several places, such as districts 38 and 48 in Orange County, California, district 21 in the Central Valley, and Oregon’s 4th district on the coast of Oregon. In CA-21, a rematch between incumbent Democrat TJ Cox and Republican David Valadao, Valadao should try to keep Cox under 60% in Kern County. In OR-4, Republican Alek Skarlatos, famous for stopping a terrorist attack on a Paris-bound train in 2015, should limit Democrat Peter DeFazio to less than 57% in Lane County, the district’s largest county. Democrats are on offense in CA-25, based in the Santa Clarita and Simi valleys.

1:00 AM: Alaska

If Democrats have failed to gain their fourth seat everywhere else, the Final Frontier is their last chance. Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Dr. Al Gross. Alaska will likely take several weeks to count all of its ballots. The Dean of the House, ironically named Don Young, also faces a challenge from Democrat/Independent Alyse Galvin.