As Election Day quickly approaches, I’ve started sifting through the Toss-Up races and trying to pick favorites. I don’t want to leave any race in Toss-Up on Election Day, that would be a cop-out.
The News Barrage
Three of major events have occurred in the last few weeks. Usually I post one article every two weeks, but the size of this article suggests that the election news cycle has sped up. I now plan on switching to weekly posts from now until the election. To review:
- Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away. The Senate will likely confirm Amy Coney Barrett, who is against abortion and the Affordable Care Act, to replace her.
- The first presidential debate has occurred, and oh boy it was brutal. There wasn’t much substance discussed, it was more of a shouting match with the occasional political platitude than a debate.
- Donald Trump and several people surrounding him have tested positive for COVID-19. Trump was admitted to Walter Reed Medical Facility, and was taken off the campaign trail for more than a week, crucial time lost after a poor debate performance and a polling deficit to make up.
The Electoral College: One Toss-Up Remains
While Americans were nay impressed with either candidate at the “debate” last Wednesday, Americans tend to blame Trump more for the failed debate than Biden. With the pending changes to SCOTUS, some swing voters concerned about the future of healthcare may break more for Biden. It’s been a rough stretch for Trump, the last thing he needed heading into October.
Polling numbers have been the cause for 4 electoral college ratings changes.
| State/District (EV Count) | Old Rating | New Rating |
| Arizona (11) | Toss-Up | Lean Biden |
| Iowa (6) | Likely Trump | Lean Trump |
| ME-2 (1) | Lean Trump | Toss-Up |
| Virginia (13) | Likely Biden | Safe Biden |
Arizona has become the fifth Trump-won state I now rate as Lean Biden. The state has a growing Hispanic population. Joe Biden is enjoying a wave of support in the Phoenix area and among senior citizens, two more large voting groups in the state. The Phoenix area was booming economically at the beginning of the year, but that has just become another casualty of COVID-19. The Biden campaign is showing more interest in the state, and rightfully so, as polling shows a small but consistent Biden lead.
Multiple accurate pollsters have conducted polls in Iowa, and they show on average a tied race. While I’m skeptical Biden and Trump are tied in the largely white and rural, Trump + 9 state, where polls tend to have a pro-Democrat bias, Likely Republican is too generous for Trump. I’m putting it in Lean Republican.
5 consecutive polls show Biden leading in Maine’s 2nd congressional district. This is significant, as Maine is one of two states, the other Nebraska, that allocates Electoral votes based on who wins each congressional district. For the same reasons as in Iowa, I’m skeptical that Biden actually leads here. But Maine has new ranked-choice voting system, which makes third-party voters to pick a “second choice” on their ballot that gets counted if no candidate would get 50% otherwise. Toss-Up, which is how I rated the district at the beginning of the cycle, seems right in this unique scenario.
The range of possible scenarios for November 3rd remain sizeable. In none of them do I see how Trump can do well enough to flip Virginia, a Clinton + 5 state that has sped to the left in the Trump era. Into Safe Biden it goes.
Biden Nears Assured Victory
Joe Biden now has 318 electoral votes at least leaning towards him, compared to just 203 for Trump. Trump got only 304 electoral votes total in his upset 2016 win. There remains only one Toss-Up state, North Carolina. The Tar Heel State could go either way, but in the grand scheme of things the state doesn’t matter as much anymore. Provided Biden wins every state I favor him in, he’d still win comfortably if he loses North Carolina. Even if Trump carries 3 out of the 4 Lean Biden states, if the state he loses isn’t New Hampshire, Biden still wins. Trump may have to win a Likely Biden state to win, most likely Michigan or Pennsylvania, which he won in 2016.
In my last article about the Presidential race, I wrote that due to the expansion of vote-by-mail and Trump’s Electoral College advantage potentially throwing off the polls more than in 2016, Joe Biden will need to be leading by double-digits in the national polls for me to move the election to Safe Biden.
To my surprise, he may just do that. His polling lead according to 538 is an impressive 10.1% leading Trump 52.1 to 42.0. His polling lead according to RCP, which follows a method of excluding low-quality polls instead of trying to adjust them, isn’t much worse, showing Biden with a 9.6% lead, 51.6 to 42. Count me impressed. I’ll wait until the Election Day itself to move the race to Safe Biden. There are still undecided voters, many of them fiscal conservatives that were reliable Republicans as recently as 2014, and are still uneasy about the Affordable Care Act and regulation to combat climate change, among other things.
A Biden Landslide?
Trump won in 2016 by cracking the Democrat’s “blue wall”, winning small town voters in the rust belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This time, there’s a chance that metropolitan areas could move far enough left that Joe Biden can break Republican’s “red wall”, the states of Georgia, Texas, and Arizona. Arizona leans Biden, while Georgia and Texas lean Trump.
Both campaigns are taking a renewed interest in Ohio. Ohio voted for Trump by 8 points after voting for Obama twice. Political operatives say that dominance by Democrats in, you guessed it, suburbs, around Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton, could potentially counter-act Trump’s 2016 improvement in rural areas. Keep your eye on Ohio, Texas, and Georgia. In the “blue wave” of 2018, Democrats only won 1 statewide race in any of those three states, and it doesn’t look like Biden is resonating much more than Clinton in rural areas, which is why I currently rate them as Lean Trump. If these states vote Biden, it would turn a Biden win into a Biden landslide.
The Senate: Only 1 Toss-Up Remains
The picture of the Senate has become clear enough on an state-by-state basis that I feel confident in favoring a candidate in 34 out of 35 contents.
| State (Incumbent, Party) | Old Rating | New Rating |
| Arizona (McSally, R) | Lean D | Likely D |
| Colorado (Gardner, R) | Lean D | Likely D |
| Maine (Collins, R) | Toss-Up | Lean D |
| Montana (Daines, R) | Toss-Up | Lean R |
All signs at this time point towards desparation for Republican Senators Cory Gardner of Colorado and Martha McSally of Arizona. Both face particularly strong Democratic candidates, former Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado and astronaut and congressional husband Mark Kelly in Arizona, that are outraising, outcampaigning, and outpolling them. Biden is favored to win both states. Both GOP senators, McSally more so than Gardner, are sticking to the party line, which has hurted them. Gardner is doing a better job of reaching out beyond the GOP base, but it’s likely too little too late in a state Biden could win by double-digits. Arizona and Colorado’s Senate races shift from Lean to Likely Democratic.
In order to survive in blue-leaning Maine, Susan Collins needed a superior campaign, one that showcased Mainers the fierce independence that they love. Instead, her Democrat opponent, Sara Gideon, is dominating the conversation and is raising towers of money. Susan Collins is backed into a corner and she knows it. Collins in one of two GOP senators that currently opposes Trump’s effort to fill the SCOTUS seat. When asked difficult questions about national politics, she’s in a position where she has to choose between pleasing the Republican base and swing voters, she rarely can do both. Her political savviness is slipping. Back in 2019 when this site was launched, I would’ve never thought I’d type these words: Maine’s Senate race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic. What a fall from grace for Susan Collins.
The only pro-Republican rating change I’m making today is in Montana, which moves out of Toss-Up to Lean Republican. Polls have shown Republican Steve Daines with a small but consistent lead as people in this red state come home to Republicans. Montana is currently reporting a record COVID-19 infection rate, which isn’t a good look for ex-Presidential candidate and current governor Steve Bullock.
The Ratings Non-Changes
At the beginning of the week, it looked like all of the pieces were coming together for Democrats to be favorites to take the Senate. When I first began writing this article, I was prepared to move North Carolina to Lean Democrat to eliminate the Toss-Up column. Democrat Cal Cunningham was clearly out-raising and out-campaigning unpopular incumbent Republican Thom Tillis, and polls showed that Cunningham was doing better than Joe Biden. This would have been me forecasting that Democrats were favored in 50 seats, the magic number for control if/when Biden wins.
But then an October surprise threw a wrench in that. Last Friday, it was revealed Cunningham was involved in an extra-marital affair, sexting a California staffer that wasn’t his wife. This stalled my plans to move North Carolina out of Toss-Up. North Carolina has a lot of evangelical voters who will view a married man that engaged in these activities as lacking integrity and morality. So not only is North Carolina the only Toss-Up state in the Electoral College, it’s also the only Senate Toss-Up. It’s Toss-Up Central!
I also would like to address the race in Iowa. I understand if you might be perplexed by the state still being Lean Republican even though polls show a small but consistent lead for Democrat Theresa Greenfield. I’m holding firm for four reasons.
- Polls in Iowa usually overestimate Democrats.
- Incumbent GOP Senator Joni Ernst is a pretty solid campaigner.
- Greenfield, who has run a very impressive campaign for a small businesswoman who’s never held public office, nonetheless is in lockstep with Biden on most issues. Conservatives will come home to Ernst in the final weeks, much like they did for now-Senator Josh Hawley in neighboring Missouri in 2018. It doesn’t make sense for the Senate rating not to match the presidential rating at this point, which is Lean Republican.
- I’m trying to thin the Toss-Up column, not expand it.
The State of Play
Democrats are in the driver’s seat in Colorado, Arizona, and Maine. They need a net gain of 3 seats to flip the Senate. Republicans are still likely to flip Alabama, so they’ll need one more.
It’s that one last seat that’s the most difficult for Democrats. I’ve expressed misgivings about their chances in North Carolina, Georgia (both races), Iowa, and Montana. They’re slight underdogs right now in all five of those races, but of those five, they only need to win one, maybe two if moderate, well-fundraising African-American Republican John James surprises in Michigan, or Trump surprises up-ballot. And let’s not forget about the 5 sneaky Likely Republican races.
It’s because of all the options Democrats have for this final seat that I’d say the Senate is a Toss-Up, it could go either way. If things end up working out for Republicans, they run the table and/or win a Lean/Likely Democrat state to keep a 51-52 seat majority. On a good night for Democrats, they overachieve, breaking through in multiple Toss-Up/Lean R/Likely R races, forcing January runoff elections in Georgia, and padding their majority such that they can afford to lose multiple seats in 2022/2024.
The House: Flashbacks From 2008
After losing 27 seats in the 2006 midterm elections, Republicans thought it wouldn’t get any worse. Naturally the mid-term elections would naturally be a referendum on President Bush, who was experiencing the lowest approval ratings of his presidency at the time. They thought things would be more even by Election Day 2008, allowing them to make up some lost ground.
Instead, things just got worse. The stock market crashed, and Barack Obama out-did John McCain at every turn. Republicans lost an additional 23 seats in the House.
While I can say pretty certainly the GOP isn’t losing 23 House seats, their fortunes have been limited in the lower chamber. Every time I look at things a net gain for House Republicans looks more and more unlikely.
With the exception of Louisiana, all states have held their congressional primaries. Some new scandals have popped up. These and more are the cause of 20 House ratings changes, two thirds of them in favor of Democrats.
| District (Incumbent, Party) | Old Rating | New Rating |
| AR-2 (Hill, R) | Safe R | Likely R |
| CA-22 (Nunes, R) | Safe R | Likely R |
| CA-50 (VACANT) | Safe R | Likely R |
| FL-13 (Crist, D) | Likely D | Safe D |
| FL-15 (OPEN, R) | Lean R | Likely R |
| FL-16 (Buchanan, R) | Likely R | Lean R |
| FL-18 (Mast, R) | Safe R | Likely R |
| KS-2 (OPEN, R) | Lean R | Likely R |
| KS-3 (Davids, D) | Likely D | Safe D |
| ME-2 (Golden, D) | Lean D | Likely D |
| MI-3 (Amash, L) | Toss-Up | Lean R |
| MI-6 (Upton, R) | Lean R | Likely R |
| MN-2 (Craig, D) | Likely D | Safe D |
| MN-8 (Stauber, R) | Likely R | Safe R |
| NE-2 (Bacon, R) | Likely R | Lean R |
| NH-2 (Kuster, D) | Likely D | Safe D |
| NJ-2 (Van Drew, R) | Likely R | Toss-Up |
| NV-3 (Lee, D) | Lean D | Likely D |
| NY-24 (Katko, R) | Likely R | Lean R |
| WA-8 (Schrier, D) | Safe D | Likely D |
Scandals, Death, and Primaries
Democrat Charlie Crist is all but certain to hold the St. Petersburg area FL-13 after Republicans nominated Anna Luna, who is at a severe fundraising disadvantage and is too conservative to beat the moderate Crist in this blue-leaning district. FL-13 moves from Likely to Safe Democratic. On the other side of the Tampa Bay, scandal-plagued GOP representative Ross Spano lost his primary in an upset to Scott Franklin, an ex-Navy pilot. That development will make this red-leaning Tampa area seat an easier hold. FL-15 moves from Lean to Likely Republican.
Down by the Space Coast, disgusting, sexual comments by incumbent Republican Brian Mast have re-surfaced. Mast won his first two terms pretty convincingly, but Trump only won the district by nine points in 2016. FL-18 moves from Safe to Likely Republican. This district would likely have become more competitive if it weren’t for the “lesser of two evils” dynamic at play, as Democrat Pam Keith has her own colorful history with words.
The Kansas City area also saw some interesting primaries. In the red 2nd district, another scandalous Republican, Steve Watkins, was successfully primaried by center-right State Treasurer Jake LaTurner. This gave Republicans a sigh of relief, as it will now be much easier for Republicans to hold KS-2 against the well-resourced Topeka mayor Michelle De La Isla. KS-2 moves from Lean to Likely Republican. In the blue KS-3, Republicans nominated Amanda Adkins, who was the weaker of the two primary frontrunners. Sharice Davids, a strong, charismatic incumbent, will be fine. KS-3 moves from Likely to Safe Democrat.
Over the summer, incumbent Libertarian Justin Amash in the red-leaning, Grand Rapids-area MI-3 announced he won’t run for re-election. This is a positive for Republicans, as Amash, a former Republican, could’ve split the Republican vote had he stayed in the race. MI-3 moves from Toss-Up to Lean Republican.
In the Kalamazoo-area MI-6, it was revealed progressive Democrat Jon Hoadley used to run a blog in witch he posted some misogynistic statements. He also was endorsed by Rashida Tlaib, a member of “The Squad”. Her endorsement isn’t doing Hoadley any favors in the red-leaning district. Longtime representative Fred Upton has more of an advantage then he’s had all cycle. MI-6 moves from Lean to Likely Republican.
Here’s a unique situation: The election in MN-2 has been postponed to February 2021 due to the death of third-party candidate Adam Weeks. I’m moving MN-2 to Safe Democrat for now, as the incumbent Democrat essentially doesn’t have to face re-election this November. Down the line, this election in this exurban Trump+2 district could be one of the first partisan litmus tests of the Joe Biden presidency.
In NH-2, Steve Negron, a light-fundraising candidate who lost to incumbent Democrat Ann Kuster by 12 points, won the Republican nomination again. There’s no reason to expect any different from 2018. NH-2 moves from Likely to Safe Democrat.
In the suburbs of Seattle, incumbent Democrat Kim Schrier underperformed expectations in the primary, getting just 43% of the vote. Washington has a primary system in which all candidates from every party compete in the same election, and the two candidates that get the most votes advance to the general election. Schrier’s poor result is a head-scratcher, she isn’t particularly unpopular or a poor campaigner. Republican Jesse Jensen has struggled to raise money. Obama and Clinton both won the district. All the fundamentals in WA-8, except the primary, point to Schrier being safe. But upsets happen, and election results don’t lie (hopefully). I’ll open the door for a shocking upset. WA-8 moves from Safe to Likely Democrat.
Polling
As Election Day nears, we are finally getting more robust polling for House races, giving us more of an idea about what’s going down district-by-district.
In CA-50, a suburban district east of San Diego, a poll showed former Republican Darrell Issa leading by only one point over Democrat Amar Campa-Najjar, who’s campaigning has definitely improved from his last run in 2018. It’s not productive to read too much into one poll, this district voted for Trump by 15, but I’ll downgrade the race to Likely Republican.
Multiple quality pollsters show independent-leaning Democrat incumbent Jared Golden leading in ME-2 by double-digits. ME-2 moves from Lean to Likely Democratic, making it the only district Trump won by double-digits to be Likely Democratic.
In the Omaha-area NE-2, a swing district, polls show a tight race between incumbent Republican Don Bacon and liberal Democrat Kara Eastman. This is a rematch from 2018, which Bacon won by 2 points. In that race, Eastman didn’t have the backing of the DCCC, a major organization supporting Democratic candidates. She does this time around. Don Bacon is well-liked in the district, several Democrats have endorsed him, so I believe he retains the advantage, but not by as much as before these polls came out. NE-2 moves from Likely to Lean Republican.
The last five polls show Democrat Amy Kennedy leading ex-Democratic moderate incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew. Amy Kennedy, who’s related to the New England political dynasty, is running a good race. There is very little recent precedent for how party-switching incumbents fare in congressional races. I thought initially Van Drew switching parties would help him as he’d have appeal among Republicans and Independents, and some residual appeal from moderate Democrats. But perhaps trying to make everyone happy ends up making no one happy. NJ-2 moves from Likely Republican to Toss-Up.
In the blue-leaning, Syracuse-area NY-24, we have a rematch from 2018, well-regarded incumbent John Katko against Democrat Dana Balter. Even as Republicans suffered elsewhere in New York, Katko won by 6 points in 2018. Balter is running a more robust campaign this time around. A Siena College poll shows Balter up by 2. Katko isn’t going down easily, but this race is definitely one to watch. NY-24 moves from Likely to Lean Republican.
A Republican Wipeout In Suburbia?
If Democrats continue to dominate the conversation in the suburbs, then it’s going to be major ouch time for Republicans. By Election Day, it’s possible many more districts will become more risky for the GOP.
I’m moving the Trump + 10 AR-2, which includes metro Little Rock, to Likely Republican, as there has been some hype surrounding Democratic state legislator Joyce Elliott. This area has a racist past that it might want to move on from. Elliott is making civil rights a major part of her campaign.
Former House Intelligence Committee and Trump acolyte Devin Nunes in the Fresno-area, Trump+ 10 CA-22, also gets downgraded to Likely Republican. Democrat Phil Arballo has raised a respectable $2.6 million, but he has some catching up to do. Nunes has raised over $16 million, most of that from big Republican donors.
Across the desert in Sin City, NV-3 moves from Lean to Likely Democrat. Incumbent Democrat Susie Lee is out-matching conservative former wrestler Dan Rodimer in this Trump+2 district.
FL-16 moves from Likely to Lean Republican. This suburban Tampa, Trump+10 district has a high share of senior citizens, another demographic trending towards Biden. The Democrat and incumbent Republican are pretty evenly matched.
I’m ending this article with a pro-Republican change in MN-8, which moves from Likely to Safe Republican. The district has a large iron-mining industry, and is largely working-class. There are signs that the area, once reliably blue, is moving on from Democrats like a lot of other rural, white areas. Democrat Quinn Nystrom isn’t raising enough money to fight the trend in this Trump+18 district. In 2018, this district was just one of three to flip Republican.
Thank you for reading my article. If you want more Toss-Up Central, visit my homepage.