How Accurate Was Toss-Up Central?
Votes are still being counted in races all across the country. However, we have a pretty good idea of how each race will go. Joe Biden is the projected winner of the 2020 Presidential Election, winning 306 Electoral Votes to Trump’s 232. This is the first election cycle Toss-Up Central has covered. It’s a good […]
2020 Election Night Watch Guide
After a brutal year of unprecedented tribulations, and a campaign that rivals 2000 and 2016 in its turbulence and senselessness, the big day is finally here. Will Mitch McConnell remain Senate Majority Leader, obstructing a lot of the Democratic agenda, or will Chuck Schumer lead the upper chamber in 2021, opening the floodgates for change? […]
The Final Predictions
The Electoral College State/District (Electoral Votes) Old Rating New Rating Colorado (9) Likely Biden Safe Biden ME-2 (1) Toss-Up Lean Trump Missouri (10) Safe Trump Likely Trump NE-2 (1) Toss-Up Lean Biden North Carolina (15) Toss-Up Lean Biden I predict a Joe Biden victory. Biden will win 334 Electoral Votes, and Trump will win 204 […]
Ratings Changes: Thinning The Toss-Up Column
As Election Day quickly approaches, I’ve started sifting through the Toss-Up races and trying to pick favorites. I don’t want to leave any race in Toss-Up on Election Day, that would be a cop-out. The News Barrage Three of major events have occurred in the last few weeks. Usually I post one article every two […]
July House Update: Democrats Push The Battlefield Into Red Territory
In February, when it was looking like Bernie Sanders would be the Democratic nominee, before COVID-19 and George Floyd’s death, but after the killing of ISIS leader Baghdadi, the USMCA trade deal that de-escalated the Chinese trade war, and Trump’s acquittal by the Senate, thing were looking up for the Grand Old Party. The question […]
June House Update: A Few Winning Battles For Team Red, But Secured Victory Near For Team Blue
It’s been about two months since our last House update. Since then, the situaton in 15 congressional districts has changed enough to warrant ratings changes. District (Incumbent, Party) Old Rating New Rating AZ-2 (Kirkpatrick, D) Likely D Safe D CA-10 (Harder, D) Likely D Safe D CO-6 (Crow, D) Safe D Likely D FL-26 (Powell, […]
Garcia Flying High Into Tuesday’s Special Election
In 6 days, a congressional special election will finish in California’s 25th district, north of Los Angeles. It will largely be a vote-by-mail election, as in-person voting options are limited due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Republicans hope to stave off the blue tide in California by flipping the seat, while Democrats seek to confirm their […]
As Coronavirus Takes Hold, Republican’s Chances of Flipping the House Diminish
As the coronavirus pandemic halts candidate’s fundraising, and the results of the California jungle primary become finalized, I am amending my ratings in 17 congressional districts. District Old Rating New Rating AZ-1 (O’Halleran, D) Lean D Likely D CA-21 (Cox, D) Lean D Toss-Up CA-22 (Nunes, R) Likely R Safe R CA-25 (OPEN, D) Lean […]
End of the Decade House Ratings Changes
The events these last couple of weeks have had large impacts on the battle for the House. The most impactful of these is North Carolina re-drawing its Congressional districts to make them more fair to Democrats. This is guaranteed to give Democrats 2 additional House seats, throwing a monkey wrench in the Republican’s plan to […]
State Legislative Elections in Virginia: What Do They Say for 2020?
On November 5, Democrats gained eight seats in the Virginia General Assembly, 2 in the 40-member Senate, and 6 in the 100-member House, flipping the General Assembly to Democrat control. The year of the 400th anniversary of the Virginia House of Burgesses, essentially the starting point of the Commonwealth, the most liberal government Virginia has […]