2020 Election Night Watch Guide
After a brutal year of unprecedented tribulations, and a campaign that rivals 2000 and 2016 in its turbulence and senselessness, the big day is finally here. Will Mitch McConnell remain Senate Majority Leader, obstructing a lot of the Democratic agenda, or will Chuck Schumer lead the upper chamber in 2021, opening the floodgates for change? […]
The Final Predictions
The Electoral College State/District (Electoral Votes) Old Rating New Rating Colorado (9) Likely Biden Safe Biden ME-2 (1) Toss-Up Lean Trump Missouri (10) Safe Trump Likely Trump NE-2 (1) Toss-Up Lean Biden North Carolina (15) Toss-Up Lean Biden I predict a Joe Biden victory. Biden will win 334 Electoral Votes, and Trump will win 204 […]
The Electoral Map Shifts: Biden Likely To Win, The Senate Is A Toss-Up
Last week on this website, I said that I would be surprised if Trump wins re-election. Polls just keep getting worse for him, worse than they ever were in 2016 when he won by winning three crucial Rust Belt states by less than one percentage point over Clinton. Polls show a majority of Americans agree […]
May Senate Update: Republicans Catch A Few Breaks
Of the little political action that has taken place recently, a lot of it has applied to down ballot races. One example is Mike Garcia, a Republican, winning by 10 points in a congressional district that Hillary Clinton carried by 7 points and was thought to be getting bluer. This is a big win for […]
New Year, New Governor Ratings
The New Jersey and Virginia governor elections are now less than two years away. I rated this year’s general elections in January and February of 2019. Those two dates were also a little less than two years apart. Given the interesting developments that have occurred in both states, I feel it appropriate to give my […]
State Legislative Elections in Virginia: What Do They Say for 2020?
On November 5, Democrats gained eight seats in the Virginia General Assembly, 2 in the 40-member Senate, and 6 in the 100-member House, flipping the General Assembly to Democrat control. The year of the 400th anniversary of the Virginia House of Burgesses, essentially the starting point of the Commonwealth, the most liberal government Virginia has […]
My Money’s on Edwards for Louisiana Governor
This Saturday, the last major election of the year will take place, but it’s certainly not least. Over $10 million has been spent and nasty labels thrown around in the Louisiana Governor race, one which almost anyone in elections will tell you is a Toss-Up. As the results from the first round of voting came […]
November 5th Election Preview
Tomorrow, important governor elections will take place in Kentucky and Mississippi, as well as state legislative elections in Virginia that could determine the state’s political future. There are also many local elections taking place all around the country, such as the election for mayor of Philadelphia and New Jersey State House. Check to see if […]
October Congressional Ratings Changes
House Ratings Changes Since I last made a post devoted to Congressional Ratings changes late last July, situations have changed enough in 14 Congressional districts to warrant ratings changes. Most of these changes are for local and candidate-specific reasons, so they don’t say much about the national environment. District Old Rating New Rating AL-1 Likely […]
3 Days Until Round 1 in Louisiana
Let’s lay down the ground rules: In Louisiana’s election system for most races except the presidential race, all candidates from all parties participate in the same primary, held, in this year, on October 12th. If one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, they win right then and there. If not, the 2 candidates […]